Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,851,520$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.97 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,832,236.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,832,236.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107,175$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,413.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105,413.9\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,265,087$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $94,641$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(9.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,394.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,394.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,579$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(574 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,540.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,540.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,556$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $101,238$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{168,193.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 71.9)}}\) (asimptote \(168,193.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,729$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(308 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,536.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 62.8)}}\) (asimptote \(18,536.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,829$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,609$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,595.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 57.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,595.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $357$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{355.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(355.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,733$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,040$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,889.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 60.0)}}\) (asimptote \(21,889.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $516$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(87.1 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{502.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(502.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,300$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,690$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,768.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,768.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $234$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(18 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(322.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,839$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,760$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(37.1 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,120.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 78.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,120.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $143$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,688$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,705$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(68.3 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,065.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 62.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,065.9\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $51$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 70.2)}}\) (asimptote \(119.2\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,468$ on 2020-06-03
