Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,851,520$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.97 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,832,236.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,832,236.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107,175$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,413.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105,413.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,265,087$ on 2020-06-03

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $94,641$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(9.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,394.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,394.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,579$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(574 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,540.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,540.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,556$ on 2020-06-03

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,238$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{168,193.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 71.9)}}\) (asimptote \(168,193.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,729$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(308 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,536.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 62.8)}}\) (asimptote \(18,536.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,829$ on 2020-06-03

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,609$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,595.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 57.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,595.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $357$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{355.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(355.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,733$ on 2020-06-03

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,040$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,889.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 60.0)}}\) (asimptote \(21,889.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $516$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(87.1 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{502.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(502.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,300$ on 2020-06-03

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,690$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,768.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,768.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $234$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(18 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(322.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,839$ on 2020-06-03

Guatemala

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,760$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(37.1 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,120.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 78.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,120.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $143$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,688$ on 2020-06-03

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,705$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(68.3 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,065.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 62.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,065.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 70.2)}}\) (asimptote \(119.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,468$ on 2020-06-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Jamaica recovered 48%
Canada recovered 1%

Jamaica

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $591$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(72.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{563.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(563.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.71 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 27.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $220$ on 2020-06-03